ConocoPhillips

Navigate firm data through the following pages:

Analyst Listing       Primary Input Data
Derived Input Data       Valuation Model Outcomes

Analyst Listing

The following analysts provide coverage for the subject firm as of May 2016:

Broker Analyst Analyst Email
Scotia Howard Weil Blake Fernandez blake.fernandez@scotiabank.com
Cowen & Company Charles Robertson charles.robertson@cowen.com
Evercore ISI Douglas Terreson doug.terreson@evercoreisi.com
Credit Suisse Edward Westlake edward.westlake@credit-suisse.com
Piper Jaffray Guy Baber guy.a.baber@simmonspjc.com
Alembic Global Advisors James Sullivan james.sullivan@alembicglobal.com
Jefferies Jason Gammel jason.gammel@jefferies.com
Nomura Research Lloyd Byrne lloyd.byrne@nomura.com
Wolfe Research Paul Sankey psankey@wolferesearch.com
Raymond James Pavel Molchanov pavel.molchanov@raymondjames.com
Wells Fargo Securities Roger D. Read roger.read@wellsfargo.com
Deutsche Bank Research Ryan Todd ryan.todd@db.com
RBC Capital Markets Scott Hanold scott.hanold@rbccm.com

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Primary Input Data

 

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Derived Input Data

Derived Input

Label

2015  Value

2016  Value

Equational Form
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes NOPLAT  (4,307)  (3,715) NOPLAT\, =\, EBIT\, x\, (1 \,-\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\, Rate\,\, on\,\, EBIT)
Free Cash Flow FCF  (2,478)  (466) FCF\,=NOPLAT\,+\,Non-Cash\,Expenses-\Delta NWC\,-\,NCS
Tax Shield TS  552  589 TS\,=\,Interest\,\,Paid\,\,x\,\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\,Rate\,\, on\,\, Pre-Tax\,\, Income
Invested Capital IC  88,228  82,863 IC\,=\,Fixed\,\,Operating\,\,Assets\,\,+\,\,Net\,\, Working\,\, Capital
Return on Invested Capital ROIC -4.88% -4.48% ROIC\,=\,\frac { NOPLAT }{ IC }
Net Investment NetInv  (4,596)  4,881 NetInv\,=\,{ {IC}_{1}}-{{IC}_{0}}+Depreciation
Investment Rate IR 106.71% -131.40% IR\,=\,\frac {NetInv}{NOPLAT}
Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACCMarket 0.64% 3.30% WACC\,=\,\frac { E }{ V } { R }_{ E }\,+\,\frac { P }{ V } { R }_{ P }\,+\,\frac { D }{ V } { R }_{ D }\left( 1- Avg\,\, Tax\,\,Rate\,\,on\,\,Pre-Tax\,\,Income \right)
 WACCBook  8.85% 8.64%
Enterprise value EVMarket  81,731  88,425  EV\,=\,Market\,\,Cap\,\,Equity\,+\,\,Long\,\,Term\,\,Debt\,-\,Cash
 EVBook  78,794  84,563
EV/EBIT Multiple \frac{EV_{Market}}{EBIT}  (16.13)  (20.23) EV/EBIT\,=\,\frac { EV}{ EBIT}
Long-Run Growth g = IR x ROIC
    -5.21%    5.89% Long-run growth rates of the income variable  are used in the Continuing Value portion of the valuation models.
 g = % \Delta GDP    2.50%    2.50%

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Valuation Model Outcomes

The outcomes presented in this study are the result of original input data, derived data, and synthesized inputs and, depending on the equational form of any particular valuation model, may result in irrelevant or implausible results.  For example, in the event WACC < g, the value of this term, often found in the denominator of an equation’s continuation value term, will be expressly negative and may result in a negative overall valuation for the firm.  In the event of a WACC < g relation, the model form as applied to the subject firm offers an irrelevant outcome.

Valuation Model Type

Label

Equational form
Key Value Driver (NOPLAT) KVD (NOPLAT) { Value }_{ DCF/KVD }=\sum { \frac { NOPLAT_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { NOPLAT }_{ 1 }\left( 1-\frac { g }{ ROIC } \right) }{ WACC-g } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Key Value Driver (FCF) KVD (FCF)
{ Value }_{ DCF/KVD }=\sum { \frac { FCF_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { NOPLAT }_{ 1 }\left( 1-\frac { g }{ ROIC } \right) }{ WACC-g } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Free Cash Flow FCF { Value }_{ DCF/FCF }=\sum { \frac { FCF_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { FCF }_{ 1 }}{ WACC-g } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Economic Profit ECON π { Value }_{ { ECON\pi } }= I{ C }_{ 0 }+\sum { \frac { { IC }_{ t-1 }(ROI{ C }_{t}-WAC{C}_{t}) }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } }+ \frac {\frac { I{C}_{0}\ x\ (ROI{C}_{1}\ -\ WAC{C}_{1}) }{ WACC-g } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Adjusted Present Value APV { Value }_{ APV }=\sum { \frac { FCF_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+{ k }_{ u } \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { FCF }_{ 1 }}{ { k }_{ u }-g } }{ { \left( 1+{ k }_{ u } \right) }^{ t } } } +\sum { \frac { { TS }_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+{ k }_{ tax } \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { TS }_{ 1 }}{ { k }_{ tax }-g } }{ { \left( 1+{ k }_{ tax } \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Forward Market Multiple FMM { Value }_{ DCF/FMM}=\sum { \frac { FCF_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { { EBIT }_{ 1 }\,{x}\,{FMM}}{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }{\,\,\,; \,\,FMM\,=\,\frac{{EV}_{t=0}}{{EBIT}_{t=0}}}
 

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