Union Pacific

Navigate firm data through the following pages:

Analyst Listing       Primary Input Data
Derived Input Data       Valuation Model Outcomes

Analyst Listing

The following analysts provide coverage for the subject firm as of May 2016:

Broker Analyst Analyst Email
Credit Suisse Allison M. Landry allison.landry@credit-suisse.com
Susquehanna Financial Group Bascome Majors bascome.majors@sig.com
Cleveland Research Company Bryan Merolla bmerolla@cleveland-research.com
TD Securities Cherilyn Radbourne cherilyn.radbourne@tdsecurities.com
Bernstein Research David Vernon david.vernon@bernstein.com
Avondale Partners Donald Broughton dbroughton@avondalepartnersllc.com
BMO Capital Markets Fadi Chamoun fadi.chamoun@bmo.com
Cowen & Company Jason H. Seidl jason.seidl@cowen.com
Buckingham Research Jeffrey Kauffman jkauffman@buckresearch.com
RBC Capital Markets John Barnes john.barnes@rbccm.com
Argus Research John Eade jeade@argusresearch.com
Stifel Nicolaus John G. Larkin jglarkin@stifel.com
Stephens Inc Justin Long justin.long@stephens.com
Morningstar Keith Schoonmaker keith.schoonmaker@morningstar.com
BB&T Capital Markets Mark A. Levin mlevin@bbandtcm.com
Nomura Research Matt Troy matt.troy@nomura.com
Raymond James Patrick Tyler Brown tyler.brown@raymondjames.com
Topeka Capital Markets Rick Paterson rp@topekacapitalmarkets.com
Deutsche Bank Research Robert Salmon robert.salmon@db.com
Wolfe Research Scott H. Group sgroup@wolferesearch.com
Scotiabank GBM Turan Quettawala turan.quettawala@scotiabank.com

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Primary Input Data

 

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Derived Input Data

Derived Input

Label

2015  Value

2016  Value

Equational Form
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes NOPLAT  5,234   4,727 NOPLAT\, =\, EBIT\, x\, (1 \,-\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\, Rate\,\, on\,\, EBIT)
Free Cash Flow FCF  2,694  4,020 FCF\,=NOPLAT\,+\,Non-Cash\,Expenses-\Delta NWC\,-\,NCS
Tax Shield TS  234  261 TS\,=\,Interest\,\,Paid\,\,x\,\, Avg \,\,Tax\,\,Rate\,\, on\,\, Pre-Tax\,\, Income
Invested Capital IC  51,394   53,115 IC\,=\,Fixed\,\,Operating\,\,Assets\,\,+\,\,Net\,\, Working\,\, Capital
Return on Invested Capital ROIC 10.18% 8.90% ROIC\,=\,\frac { NOPLAT }{ IC }
Net Investment NetInv  4,455  3,759 NetInv\,=\,{ {IC}_{1}}-{{IC}_{0}}+Depreciation
Investment Rate IR 85.12% 79.53% IR\,=\,\frac {NetInv}{NOPLAT}
Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACCMarket 25.01% 28.21% WACC\,=\,\frac { E }{ V } { R }_{ E }\,+\,\frac { P }{ V } { R }_{ P }\,+\,\frac { D }{ V } { R }_{ D }\left( 1- Avg\,\, Tax\,\,Rate\,\,on\,\,Pre-Tax\,\,Income \right)
 WACCBook  8.96% 8.05%
Enterprise value EVMarket  78,892  98,791  EV\,=\,Market\,\,Cap\,\,Equity\,+\,\,Long\,\,Term\,\,Debt\,-\,Cash
 EVBook  78,678  97,497
EV/EBIT Multiple \frac{EV_{Market}}{EBIT}  9.80  13.59 EV/EBIT\,=\,\frac { EV}{ EBIT}
Long-Run Growth g = IR x ROIC
   8.67%   7.08% Long-run growth rates of the income variable  are used in the Continuing Value portion of the valuation models.
 g = % \Delta GDP   2.50%   2.50%

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Valuation Model Outcomes

The outcomes presented in this study are the result of original input data, derived data, and synthesized inputs and, depending on the equational form of any particular valuation model, may result in irrelevant or implausible results.  For example, in the event WACC < g, the value of this term, often found in the denominator of an equation’s continuation value term, will be expressly negative and may result in a negative overall valuation for the firm.  In the event of a WACC < g relation, the model form as applied to the subject firm offers an irrelevant outcome.

Valuation Model Type

Label

Equational form
Key Value Driver (NOPLAT) KVD (NOPLAT) { Value }_{ DCF/KVD }=\sum { \frac { NOPLAT_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { NOPLAT }_{ 1 }\left( 1-\frac { g }{ ROIC } \right) }{ WACC-g } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Key Value Driver (FCF) KVD (FCF)
{ Value }_{ DCF/KVD }=\sum { \frac { FCF_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { NOPLAT }_{ 1 }\left( 1-\frac { g }{ ROIC } \right) }{ WACC-g } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Free Cash Flow FCF { Value }_{ DCF/FCF }=\sum { \frac { FCF_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { FCF }_{ 1 }}{ WACC-g } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Economic Profit ECON π { Value }_{ { ECON\pi } }= I{ C }_{ 0 }+\sum { \frac { { IC }_{ t-1 }(ROI{ C }_{t}-WAC{C}_{t}) }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } }+ \frac {\frac { I{C}_{0}\ x\ (ROI{C}_{1}\ -\ WAC{C}_{1}) }{ WACC-g } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Adjusted Present Value APV { Value }_{ APV }=\sum { \frac { FCF_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+{ k }_{ u } \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { FCF }_{ 1 }}{ { k }_{ u }-g } }{ { \left( 1+{ k }_{ u } \right) }^{ t } } } +\sum { \frac { { TS }_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+{ k }_{ tax } \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { \frac { { TS }_{ 1 }}{ { k }_{ tax }-g } }{ { \left( 1+{ k }_{ tax } \right) }^{ t } } }
 
Forward Market Multiple FMM { Value }_{ DCF/FMM}=\sum { \frac { FCF_{ t } }{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } +\frac { { EBIT }_{ 1 }\,{x}\,{FMM}}{ { \left( 1+WACC \right) }^{ t } } }{\,\,\,; \,\,FMM\,=\,\frac{{EV}_{t=0}}{{EBIT}_{t=0}}}
 

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